Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 4.639364 5.446804 6.339634 7.398221 8.617131 9.974633 11.598983
2025-08-24 3.306000 4.364122 5.661681 7.361162 9.518662 12.155652 15.611075
2025-08-31 2.485344 3.624939 5.149667 7.318599 10.300408 14.227728 19.758266
2025-09-07 2.047517 3.251056 4.984242 7.625312 11.501986 16.927329 25.022304
2025-09-14 1.670610 2.863856 4.699171 7.671537 12.291969 19.107126 29.793341
2025-09-21 1.386374 2.549066 4.447511 7.695134 13.007644 21.215180 34.655695
2025-09-28 1.165877 2.287985 4.224161 7.706583 13.673036 23.283280 39.643403
2025-10-05 1.094814 2.271513 4.399305 8.391398 15.500773 27.354903 48.190978
2025-10-12 0.975652 2.140015 4.345812 8.660159 16.639884 30.400433 55.347761
2025-10-19 0.875509 2.024692 4.299745 8.927033 17.793336 33.567278 62.993353
2025-10-26 0.765908 1.867301 4.145181 8.960406 18.511739 36.028716 69.623717
2025-11-02 0.645188 1.660706 3.856903 8.684761 18.601189 37.350212 74.315025
2025-11-09 0.529977 1.445219 3.520254 8.273115 18.397291 38.153245 78.229221
2025-11-16 0.454771 1.309509 3.335042 8.155399 18.774703 40.107243 84.524624
2025-11-23 0.393969 1.196328 3.181144 8.082007 19.232335 42.259887 91.407392
2025-11-30 0.364533 1.159744 3.201934 8.408264 20.587359 46.343564 102.489222
2025-12-07 0.324170 1.083291 3.110916 8.455413 21.323479 49.212048 111.343083
2025-12-14 0.288107 1.010726 3.016873 8.480013 22.007782 52.030084 120.332790
2025-12-21 0.256224 0.943090 2.923753 8.492107 22.661364 54.837709 129.537019
2025-12-28 0.255252 0.973833 3.105263 9.240428 25.168600 61.953841 148.626428
2026-01-04 0.237637 0.945497 3.115292 9.533991 26.589168 66.748448 162.992041
2026-01-11 0.221474 0.918311 3.124135 9.825464 28.036446 71.728159 178.164956
2026-01-18 0.199559 0.865097 3.045812 9.861903 28.832774 75.259799 190.331731